Absence of Evidence, or Evidence of Absence; A paper on...

Absence of Evidence, or Evidence of Absence? A paper on Animal Consciousness nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Consciousness is a difficult term to grasp; so much so, that many scientists will not even attempt to define the term, much less search for it’s evidence. Most however, do agree that consciousness must include certain aspects; specifically cognition, self-awareness, memory, and abstract thought. nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Lesley J. Rogers describes consciousness as, â€Å"related to awareness, intelligence, and complex cognition, as well as language. Consciousness may be manifested in self-awareness, awareness of others, intentional behavior, including intentional communication, deception of others, and in the†¦show more content†¦nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;In Dr. Pepperberg’s book, The Alex Studies, she taught the parrot to be able to recognize different objects by color, shape, and material. He was even able to eventually distinguish between concepts such as â€Å"bigger,† â€Å"smaller,† â€Å"same,† â€Å"different,† â€Å"over,† and â€Å"under.† When asked to identify objects, Alex correctly identified, on first try, 80% of all objects presented in over 200 tests (45). He was also able to correctly pair different labels together to fit a certain object; for example color and material. After only two years of traini ng, Alex was able to communicate with contextual and conceptual use of human speech. He could identify, request, and refuse a set of objects for play or food (50). Dr. Pepperberg also took precautions to ensure that she had not allowed for any â€Å"cues† to tip off Alex to a correct answer, as in the case of â€Å"Clever Hans.† nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;These animals also demonstrated memory, another of the aspects of consciousness. Many behaviorists believe that animals act only on instinct, or on conditioned responses to stimuli. Others, like Lesley J. Rogers, believe that memories actually play an important part in an animal’s behavior. â€Å"The uniqueness of an individual is not simply encoded in the enormous diversity of our genetic code (our inheritance) but is established by our uniqueShow MoreRelated Definition Essay – Defining the Soul of Man1235 Words   |  5 Pagessocratically define Soul. More on this later: Soul, or Consciousness, is, without a doubt, tied up within the billions of curious things called synapses and cells, deep inside the brain. There are cases of people without consciousness, without the all important I. Usually this happens through the onset of a coma, or sometimes the hippocampus is damaged. (which is where short-term memory, a necessary component of consciousness, is located.) These people do not function properly, and are unawareRead MoreDifferences Between Object And Colour Essay1667 Words   |  7 Pagesenvironment! For the Turner Prize exhibition The main piece of work of Karla Black is called Doesn t Care In Words(2011), a hanging sculpture made of cellophane, paint, sugar paper, chalk, plaster powder, powder paint, sellotape, cosmetics, paint, vaseline as well as moisturising cream. Bath bombs are scattered with sugar-paper, which is colored over with pistachio-hued chalk. Also included other colored polythene sculptures in that ehxibition(Barnes). Her a never- ending process of experimentingRead MoreHuman And Non Human Animals1791 Words   |  8 PagesWith several scientifically verifiable differences between human and non-human animals, there are major similarities in terms of biological make ups, livelihood requirements, and life cycles. Major differences are cited on the grounds of brain functionality and response to various environmental stimuli. Basing the whole argument on the differences in the mental capabilities of both human and non-human animals, the latter is viewed as less being that is vulnerable and that requires support, protectionRead MoreThe Existence Of Religion Of Puritanism1770 Words   |  8 Pageshappens with anything going on in the world. This constant is death, as death has been a part of humanity forever, and will always continue to be, no matter what may be occurring in the world at that moment. A second constant in the human realm of consciousness is very closely linked to death-in fact, it could be argued that the presence of death led to the creation of this constant. The second constant is the existence of religion, or systems of belief, in all of their incredibly varying shapes andRead MoreEffects of Having Ofw Parents3287 Words   |  14 PagesTertiary School Students from First Asia Institute of Technology and Humanities (FAITH), First Semester AY 2011-2012 I. Target Readers: Students who have an Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) parent II. Research Objectives: After reading this research paper, FAITH tertiary students should be able to: 1. Cite the advantages of having an OFW parent in terms of the following aspects: a. Financial b. Behavioral c. Academic 2. Cite the disadvantages of having an OFW parent in terms of the followingRead MoreHuman Sexuality and Sex4603 Words   |  19 Pages5.This paper was an essay I did for my Philosophy 5 class, which focused on the morality of of sex- homosexuality in particular. Needless to say, it was my favorite. We were free to choose any topic we wished, so long as it had something to do with sexual ethics; with great gusto, I chose to argue for the possibility of moral bestiality (wherein I use the common definition for one who has sex with animals, with no further connotations) Apparently I was the 1st student whod ever done so. It alsoRead MoreProblems of Municipal Administration in India3562 Words   |  15 PagesHistory of Municipal administration in India The earliest evidence of local management of civic administration in India can be traced to Indus Valley civilization (around 2300 B.C) which was essentially an urban civilization. Commenting on the Indus Valley civilization, Golden Childe says â€Å"well planned streets and a magnificent system of drains, regularly cleared out; reflect the vigilance of some regular municipal government†. The nature of society and governance at local level underwent a significantRead MoreEssay about Beef...and Why It Shouldnt Be Whats for Dinner5062 Words   |  21 Pagesoutskirts of our society, associated in collective public opinion almost exclusively with radical animal rights activists and left-wing political attitudes (Lund). In recent years, however, the practice of abstaining from meat consumption has taken on new life, fueled by new evidence of its health benefits and a changing moral landscape that is gradually expanding to include the rights of animals with those of humans. In spi te of its rapid growth, the vegetarian philosophy remains a largely controversialRead More Words and Images in Faulkners As I Lay Dying Essay3612 Words   |  15 Pageschapters. Faulkners other uses of the technique of collage are obvious in Darls narrative sections: Darl describes Vardamans face as fading into the dusk like a piece of paper pasted on a failing wall (49), compares Jewels horse to a patchwork quilt hung on a line (162), and depicts Jewels eyes as looking like spots of white paper pasted on a high small football (213). Faulkners direct reference to cubism occurs in Darls barn burning section: The front, the conical facade with the square orificeRead MoreBrand Community9592 Words   |  39 PagesCOMMUNITY: BUILDING COMMITMENT IN THE CHARITY SECTOR ABSTRACT The paper introduces a model of brand community development that is extended to the nonprofit sector; a sector that has just recently begun to embrace relationship marketing. It is believed that brand communities represent a unique form of relationship marketing, with benefits that are particularly compelling for nonprofits. Indeed, the paper reveals that many of the characteristics of brand communities already exist to

It s Only A Game - Isn t It - 1635 Words

It’s Only a Game - Isn’t It? A small group of people sat around a ouija board expecting nothing to happen. A few nervous giggles were exchanged amongst each other. The laughter quickly stopped when the planchette stopped moving and the room became cold; the air turned thick and heavy. Something entered the space, a feeling of distress surrounded the group. They became paranoid, and felt like there was something looking at them from the dark corners. After what felt like hours trying to end the session, the planchette still refused to move, almost as if it was frozen on the board. As their impatience quickly grew, they forced the planchette to goodbye. The feeling of despair had vanished, but the feeling of being watched remained as everyone left the room that night. Some view the ouija board as a harmless game, but many have faced the terrifying reality of the mysterious â€Å"talking board.† The ouija board is a phenomenon that is a legitimate means of communica ting with spirits. â€Å"In February, 1891, the first few advertisements appeared in papers: â€Å"ouija, the wonderful talking board,† boomed a Pittsburgh toy and novelty shop, describing a magical device that answered questions about the past, present and future with marvelous accuracy† and promised â€Å"never - failing amusement and recreation for all the classes,† a link â€Å"between the known and unknown, the material and immaterial’† (McRobbie 1). Known as the father of the ouija board, William Fuld patented the world’s firstShow MoreRelatedMy Personal Opinion On The Game1255 Words   |  6 Pagescampaign at hand. Below, I ve written a release-day review to assist you in deciding whether you would enjoy this game or not. 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Cheat Sheet MDM Risk analysis Free Essays

Decisions based on them are dangerous! A single point only ever tells us what the average of two cases is, never what happens between the two cases! Poor understanding of downside risk poor understanding of upside opportunity 2) Scenario analysis: Define your scenarios; best-worst-base There are a range of results! Check if risk makes a difference 3) Use distributions for the uncertainties to describe key risk drivers Choose distribution based on historical data or expert opinion Distribution is important for the simulation; based on the given distribution, the simulator ill be more/less likely to pick numbers in specific ranges Uniform: same probability of all numbers in a given range Triangle: point within the range is much more likely than the other points Normal: you know the middle point but it could be off by X in either direction 4) Run (at)Risk (Monte-Carlo simulation) Define distributions (step 3) Define output cell fir which to simulate results Things to look out for Mean of objective variable (usually NAP) Compare results with scenario results (atria’s will give better indication of the range than the scenarios! Look at full range of outcomes Look at standard deviation and at confidence range Look at downside risk and upside potential. What is % of being above/below specific n umber? What is breakable probability? What is the distribution like? Perform Monte-Carlo simulation to Evaluate different possible outcomes Determine expected result, range of results, probability of results (e. G. We will write a custom essay sample on Cheat Sheet MDM Risk analysis or any similar topic only for you Order Now Probability of break-even), downside risk, etc.. Advantages: avoid the Flaw of Averages, understand the risk, test your intuition 5) Sensitivity analysis Purpose Examine sensitivity of results when model parameters are varied Observe change in results due to change in assumptions Identify main uncertainty drivers / key risk drivers Methodology What-if analysis (simple changing of numbers to see what happens) One-way two-way sensitivity analysis Tornado diagrams One-way two-way sensitivity analysis Use one-way sensitivity analysis (data table) to check how changes to a variable effect the output variable. Use Goal Seek to find breakable point of that variable. Use two-way sensitivity analysis (data table) to check for changes in two different variables at the same time Tornado diagram Check for impact of each variable / parameter, sorted in order of magnitude Shows you on which variables you should focus most, where the most important risks lie! Some Excel info points: Simulation settings: EXAMPLE QUESTIONS ON RISK ANALYSIS 1 . In what type of decision context could risk analysis be useful and why may it be dangerous to rely on single point forecasts? What techniques can you use to overcome the problems of such forecasts? How do you decide what technique is most appropriate to use? Every business decision entails risk dangerous! A single point only ever tells us what the average Of two cases is, never what happens between the two cases! Example answer for this part: These numbers are based on the average scenario which is not necessarily representative of the true value (argue why could over- or underestimate). Furthermore, they do not tell us anything about the risk. Technique: scenario analysis or simulation 2. Explain in your own words how Monte Carlo Simulation could be useful to a decision maker Evaluate different possible outcomes Averages, understand the risk, test your intuition 3. Explain how the simulation process works to produce results that are useful to a decision maker Example answer: This is different from the E,250 that Carolina’s predecessor estimated because the original estimate was made using only single-value estimates for each of the variables. However, by using a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for a range of possible values (with a triangular distribution to account for the higher likelihood of the values Of 5% and 20% for economy and business, respectively). This means that, based on 1 ,OHO iterations of possible combinations for each of the variables as per the arranging definition of the potential values for each variable under each iteration, the mean of the cost is E 10,277. 4. A friend of yours has just learned about simulation methods and has asked you to conduct a complicated risk analysis to help her making a choice. She said she would be happy to let you solve the problem and then recommend what action she should take. Explain why she needs to be involved in the analysis and modeling process and what kind of information you need from her. Risk analysis requires information about the characteristics of a particular uncertainty (e. G. Shape of probability striation function, range of likely values etc) 5. A simulation model has produced the following three risk profiles displayed below. What advice would you give to the decision maker on the basis of this output? Choice depends on risk attitude, personal wealth, importance of project success and cost of investment alternative. Alternative C has the highest associated payoff. However, range of possible payoffs is quite large. The steeper the shape of the probability distribution function, the smaller the range of possible expected payoffs (look at standard deviation of outcomes). Consider 5% confidence interval of most likely payoffs. Alternative A has quite a big confidence interval with relatively flat slope at the edges. Look at intersection of B and C and argue which one is less risky. 6. Your boss has asked you to work up a simulation model to examine the uncertainty regarding the success or failure of five different investment projects. He provides probabilities for the success of each project individually (numbers given). Because the projects are run by people in different segments of their investment market, you both agree that it would be reasonable to believe that, given these probabilities, he outcomes of the projects are independent. He points out, however, that he really is not fully confident in these probabilities and that they could be off by as much as 0. 05 in either direction on any given probability. (a) How can you incorporate this uncertainty about the probabilities in the simulation model? Use normal distributions for each project with Sd= 0. 05 (b) Now suppose he changes probability to include ranges. How can you update your simulation model to take this additional information into account? Update probability distributions – triangle, discrete, uniform, normal Example answer: He should use historical data and his expert judgment to estimate the distribution of inputs. He should apply a normal distribution if the different values are independent of each other. Example for normal distribution argument: However, since the number of high quality applications is the sum of the individual decisions â€Å"whether or not to apply/’ of a substantial amount of high caliber young professionals, and since this decision is taken by each potential applicant to a large extend independently of each other, the normal distribution with mean 630 seems reasonable. Moreover, given the potential range of high quality applications is between 51 0 and 750, a standard deviation of 60 seems reasonable; that is, the range of 240 students corresponds to 4 standard deviations. Since the proportion of offers accepted is again the sum of many individual decisions, the normal distribution with mean 58% and standard deviation of 2% might be reasonable. 7. Interpret the following risk analysis result tables ask at: Minimum, expected, maximum, P(loss) = x % (downside risk), P( X) = Y% (upside potential) 8. Interpret sensitivity analysis Describe how output variable is sensitive to given assumptions/parameters. Describe how output variable minimizes and maximizes with the different scenarios; what is the upside potential and downside risk Example answer: The total cost decreases by El ,800 for each 5% increase in the business class no-show rate from 15% to 20% (at which point it is minimized), but then increases by E,700 per percentage point increase from 20% to 30%. The rate Of increase is consistent regardless of the rate of economy no-show. (could include more insights!!! ) The two-way sensitivity table and the accompanying chart show us that in the lower ranges of the possible no-show rates, the total cost is sensitive to both variables in fairly similar proportion, until the optimum combination (I. E. The minimized cost) is reached at 5% economy and 20% business. After this inflection point, the total cost becomes much more sensitive to changes in the business class no-show rate. 9. Describe, compare and explain the shape of a distribution. Risk profile: probability of making a loss vs. a profit Minimum versus maximum Variance Size of 90% confidence interval around the mean Expected return mean average) Include arguments why distributions might differ with different scenarios 1 0) Make recommendation based on the results. Will usually be trade-off between high risk for higher return on average and lower risk for lower return on average Include risk profiles, probabilities, maximum and minimum numbers†¦ Example answer: The policy that we have recommended is better than the others, because it has the lowest average total cost. Furthermore, the 95% confidence interval has the narrowest range of possible values, as well as the lowest probability that costs will exceed El 7,000. However, even though our recommended policy is better overall, it is not necessarily going to be the best on each individual flight. However, this doses t matter since the average cost is the single most important criterion when choosing a policy because you have 365 * 4 flights per year. One additional insight you could generate is the simulated cost difference between the current and suggested policies. The new policy is worse than the original policy 6% of the times. 1 1) What can be further done to improve profitability and manage the risks involved? How to cite Cheat Sheet MDM Risk analysis, Papers